Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 11.465370 12.873700 14.462414 16.402994 18.730933 21.461659 24.949292
2025-03-30 9.299396 10.988849 13.042387 15.770098 19.374205 24.089113 30.932084
2025-04-06 7.958213 9.700442 11.918305 15.027640 19.411698 25.606714 35.505402
2025-04-13 7.049705 8.795655 11.097794 14.464285 19.466095 27.005411 40.115264
2025-04-20 6.992274 8.975989 11.707969 15.922935 22.630706 33.673550 55.369959
2025-04-27 6.658489 8.726485 11.667347 16.392190 24.325751 38.359011 69.005020
2025-05-04 6.114442 8.120998 11.034494 15.842421 24.213931 39.783702 76.526431
2025-05-11 5.877636 7.935729 11.002277 16.236768 25.787914 44.776960 94.713286
2025-05-18 5.536136 7.563623 10.641785 16.028790 26.211294 47.532751 108.799630
2025-05-25 5.239929 7.236269 10.319545 15.841500 26.631945 50.388289 125.069782
2025-06-01 5.002555 6.981426 10.089692 15.785856 27.298122 54.001091 146.609000
2025-06-08 4.717905 6.633403 9.678496 15.352045 27.104558 55.450398 161.621402
2025-06-15 4.514319 6.412355 9.480087 15.329213 27.875195 59.898057 194.788712
2025-06-22 4.233662 6.051331 9.019172 14.759303 27.344284 60.659837 212.627457
2025-06-29 3.960530 5.687282 8.528149 14.082054 26.463026 60.174355 224.079981
2025-07-06 3.736207 5.391701 8.137447 13.567581 25.892470 60.504904 241.467355
2025-07-13 3.811328 5.594320 8.635517 14.898246 30.060827 77.838216 414.158841
2025-07-20 3.746651 5.556159 8.695728 15.325342 32.050533 88.976310 592.496433
2025-07-27 3.562466 5.303434 8.343596 14.824918 31.438000 89.740422 658.934009
2025-08-03 3.501854 5.260982 8.380187 15.183935 33.310064 101.976200 980.727045
2025-08-10 3.377415 5.100458 8.182513 14.994632 33.558795 107.215119 1240.248952
2025-08-17 3.263319 4.952865 8.000633 14.824079 33.838116 112.880088 1604.566159
2025-08-24 3.170148 4.838132 7.875323 14.773393 34.485891 120.987083 2252.544651